BRIEF ON IRAN
No. 661
Wednesday, May 21, 1997
Representative Office of
The National Council of Resistance of Iran
Washington, DC
Hundreds Arrested for Electoral Offenses as Poll Shows Khamenei's Protégé Set To Win, Reuters, May 20
TEHRAN - Iranian authorities on Tuesday said 280 people had been arrested in the capital for electoral offences, and warned against further violations in the Islamic republic's presidential campaign.
As they did so, a rare public opinion poll showed parliament speaker Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri holding a big lead in the run-up to Friday's polls, wide enough to ensure him overall victory on the first round.
Economic Paralysis, Agence France Presse, May 19
The president of Iran elected in Friday's election will inherit an economy that only recently, and with great difficulty, emerged from an acute foreign debt crisis. It is an economy that remains blocked by the U.S.'s hard-line and threats of sanctions.
Privatized companies have basically remained semi-governmental, while foreign investment remains paralyzed by restrictive constitutional laws inherited from the revolution.
The Iranian economy - with its government-controlled foreign trade, a completely nationalized banking system, and currency with an exchange rate worth less than its value - greatly resembles countries like the former Soviet Union…
Many foreign companies attracted to this market of 65 million people have been discouraged by imports which have fallen to half and the acute crisis resulting from unpaid debts in recent years…
OPEC's second biggest producer, is imprisoned by an "oil-everything" outlook inherited from the Shah. With "black gold" producing 80% of its foreign currency, Iran must live alongside every fluctuation in the price per barrel.
But this income, which has kept the Islamic Revolution alive for the past 18 years, can no longer be used to cover the signs of under-development of the industrial sector, extensively deprived of foreign investment and foreign technological advancements…
The American boycott since 1995 and Washington's threats of sanctions against any foreign companies which invest in Iran's oil industry, have crippled this economy's ability to get going…
Wheat Imports Skyrocket as Iranian Farmers Shun Government Prices, Reuter, May 19
TEHRAN - The recent preference of Iranian farmers to use local wheat to feed their livestock, coupled with lower domestic production, has been behind increases in Iranian wheat imports, Iranian wheat industry sources said on Monday…
Iran's government buys wheat from farmers, many of whom also herd sheep, goats and cattle, at prices it sets. It then sells the wheat to bakeries for production of bread which is sold at heavily subsidised retail prices.
The implication is that some farmers have found it more profitable to feed livestock than to sell wheat to the state which has offered less competitive prices, some analysts say.
… The London-based International Grains Council reported earlier in May that Iran had become the world's biggest wheat importer,…
"The Enemy Is Watching," State-Run Television, May 17
[Excerpt from the Friday prayer sermon of Mullah Amini.]
"I am hopeful that God willing, the public will turn out for this election. Let me briefly say a few things about this election.
"First, the need for an extensive turnout, which is very important… The world is waiting, the world is watching our regime. The enemy is watching closely for your apathy, to conclude that the people no longer want an Islamic regime…
"If, God forbid, the turnout is low, they will say, see, they are apathetic. If the turnout is high, even though they won't admit it and will still cause trouble, they will nevertheless take stock and put away ideas about aggression…"
Fearful of the Resistance, State-run television, May 10
[Excerpt from the Friday prayer sermon by Khamenei's representative in Qom, Javadi Amoli.]
"… Elect someone who causes no tension. There should not be any conflict. There should not be any battering…
"The enemy is lined up on all sides, close to us… Near the Persian Gulf, they have military camps. The same people who launched the Mersad Operation [mullahs' term for Operation Eternal Light, in which the National Liberation Army of Iran struck hard at the regime's forces in 1988] against Islam are ready, only kilometers from [the western border cities of] Kermanshah and Qasr-e-shirin.
"If, God forbid, these outsiders get the feeling Iran is in a state of crisis, it will mean an attack."