BRIEF ON IRAN
No. 721
Friday, August 15, 1997
Representative Office of
The National Council of Resistance of Iran
Washington, DC
TEHRAN - Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has had the briefest of political honeymoons as his differences with political opponents are coming out in the open.
Analysts and diplomats on Thursday said the moderate Shi'ite Moslem cleric was facing a stern challenge by conservative opponents over his choice of some key cabinet ministers.
The 54-year-old president had also inherited an economy that was showing early signs of a possible slowdown…, they added.
Conservatives and hardliners, who had largely refrained from publicly criticizing Khatami since his election in May, have opened up with harsh attacks on his cabinet choices…
"It is now certain that a noteworthy number of these nominees will not be able to get the parliament's vote of confidence," the Tehran Times newspaper said on Thursday....
"Introducing [as culture minister] a person like Mohajerani who seeks relations with America is an insult to the Majlis," deputy Mehdi-Reza Darvishzadeh told Resalat newspaper on Thursday....
Conservatives are also expected to question the nomination as interior minister of Abdollah Nouri, a cleric deputy who leads a pro-Khatami faction in parliament, analysts said.
Khatami's choice of United Nations ambassador Kamal Kharrazi as foreign minister has also been attacked by hardliners who question his revolutionary credentials….
Iran's economic health will also be of concern to Khatami as evidence comes through that government revenues have fallen below budget forecast and that prices continue to rise....
Fasting Iranians Demand Political Asylum, Associated Press, August 14
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands - … Amir Amiry and Majid Masseri, who fled persecution in their native Iran, began hunger strikes after the Dutch government ordered their deportation…
Today, Amiry marks his 62nd day without food; Masseri is in his fifth week of fasting, including a 10-day stretch without water.
The plight of the two, who are semiconscious and nearing death, has kindled debate in the Netherlands about whether the country is abandoning its tradition of taking in the desperate and the downcast....
Another 25 Iranians have launched hunger strikes recently in solidarity with the two men…
Both Masseri and Amiry, 27, say they face imprisonment, torture or death if they return to Iran....
"I'm very angry at the government," said Masseri's daughter, Simin, 13, who this week joined her sister and mother in their own hunger strikes.
The Dutch Foreign Ministry said it based its deportation order on its belief that the political and human rights situation in Iran is improving under a new, more moderate government.
Amnesty International and others question that....
Is the World Opting for Another Wishful Dream? Deutche Welle Radio, August 13
At the first glance, it seems that Khatami has done his work with major research and study. From the 22 ministers he has introduced, only five have been in Rafsanjani's government… while no women are mentioned in the list of candidates…
In any event, the list of Khatami's ministers, that should be approved by the Islamic majlis, is the first compromise between him and the parliament. This, in a way, indicates the strategy for future policies. Already it can be assumed that the policies of Iranian government will not change significantly from the past.
In the past, Rafsanjani was told to be advocate of modernizing the Iranian society and rapprochement with the Western world. He was told to be interested in cultural and especially economic freedom. But, eventually it was proven that all of that was but a wish and dream…
Therefore, even if Rafsanjani had true democratic intentions, he must not have been able to convince the conservatives. And most likely, his successor, Khatami, too, will be no more successful than him.
There are indications to that effect. Now, at the inception of his presidency, we already know that the foreign policy and Iranian security is determined by Khamenei [clerics' spiritual leader], and it is the president's responsibility to execute his decisions and views.
Under these circumstances, removing a hardliner and controversial minister such as Fallahyian will not have much effect… Similarly nominating the ambassador to U.N., Kamal Kharrazi, for foreign minister… will not lead to a new era in Iran-U.S. relationship…
Based on all of these, we can envision that the conservatives will not allow the new president to demonstrate independence…
This opposition does not necessarily have to be shown by rejecting his suggested nominees at majlis, where conservatives hold the majority. They will further limit the scope of president's authority whenever deemed necessary…