The Iranian resistance… is trying to warn policy-makers they are overlooking signs of decay in the Iranian government by searching for moderates in the mullah-ruled regime.

"We are trying to inform Washington about a very important reality in Iran that unfortunately is being misread again," said Alireza Jafarzadeh of the foreign relations committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

He told Embassy Row that three factions have developed within the ruling circle and they pose a violent threat to each other. Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guard is rife with apathy and disillusion, and Iranian youth, two-thirds of the population of 70 million, are growing disenchanted with the 19-year-old revolution.

Mr. Jafarzadeh said the factions in this raw struggle for power have lined up behind Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme spiritual leader, President Mohammad Khatami and former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

"The infighting is getting worse," Mr. Jafarzadeh said. "There is nobody in the regime with the ability to settle these disputes. ... These are very serious matters that are threatening the foundation of the regime."

Mr. Jafarzadeh added, "They are fighting for power. The dispute is not over radicalism vs. moderation."

He hopes the Clinton administration will avoid the mistake of the Carter administration, which believed Shah Reza Pahlavi was in control as the country was disintegrating under him.

A State Department official said he would not quarrel with Mr. Jafarzadeh's analysis.

"We would accept the premise there is a complex political dilemma in Iran right now," said the official, who asked not to be identified. "If someone wants to call them factions, that's all right.

"We should all be very humble," he added. "We don't really know what is going on in Iran."

Although the United States hoped Mr. Khatami would show signs of moderation, the official said, "we haven't seen much in the way of change."

Iranian-sponsored terrorism has increased since Mr. Khatami took office in August, according to the State Department's latest report on international terrorism…

U.S. Decision to Waive ILSA Will Embolden Mullahs, Iran Zamin News Agency, May 19

In a statement on the US Government's decision yesterday not to impose sanctions on the three companies which have invested in the mullahs' energy industry, the NCR said: "Granting such concessions to the religious, terrorist dictatorship ruling Iran, particularly at a time when the death knells for the clerics have begun to toll, is reminiscent of the United States' unconditional support for the shah's regime in his last months in power."

"The mullahs will view the waiver on the Iran-Libya Sanction Act as a green light to continue and intensify repression at home and expand their terrorist and fundamentalist activities abroad," statement said.

[The Los Angeles Times reported on Tuesday that: Although Albright said the decision… did not reflect a change of policy regarding Iran, it clearly sent a strong message about Washington's improving disposition toward Tehran. "The Iranians will have to be tone deaf not to understand what we're saying," one official said. The White House decision to waive the sanctions is widely expected to be a major boon to Iran's troubled economy at a critical juncture, as other European and foreign firms try to get a piece of development action...]

Wave of Arrests in Cleric's Hometown, Agence France Presse, May 18

TEHRAN - At least 15 people have been arrested in the Iranian town of Najafabad, where there has been a wave of protest in support of Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, a dissident cleric under house arrest, newspaper reported Monday.

A Revolutionary Guards official confirmed that 15 people "have been implicated in the recent troubles," in Montazeri's hometown near Esfahan.

An unspecified number of local officials sympathetic to the cleric have also been relieved of their duties, he said.

Widespread Arrests of Mojahedin, Iran Zamin News Agency, May 19

The Guards Corps and Intelligence Ministry agents have arrested a large number of ex-political prisoners, Mojahedin supporters and their families in different parts of the country, especially in Tehran and in Isfahan, Gilan, and Kermanshah provinces. On May 18, the state television announced that several Mojahedin were arrested near the town of Delijan as they were returning from Isfahan after taking part in a protest demonstration.

A deputy said Sunday in the Majlis that the Mojahedin and Montazeri's supporters used knives to attack the regime's officials. The Majlis Speaker announced the same day that the Mojahedin's conspiracies "are not confined to Isfahan, but are unpatriotic actions and against national security."
 

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