Back to Brief on Iran
WASHINGTON - The political situation in Iran will remain "unsettled" in the months leading up to the next presidential elections in mid 2001, US Central Intelligence Agency director George Tenet told Congress.
"Even if the elections produce a Majles (parliament) dominated by (Mohammad) Khatami's supporters, further progress on reform will remain erratic," Tenet told a Senate committee Wednesday.
He said that Iran's spiritual guide and supreme leader, Khamenei, and "key institutions such as the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the large parastatal foundations will remain outside the authority of the Majles..."
[Mr. Tanent added that: The factional maneuvering probably means that foreign policy options will still be calculated first to prevent damage to the various leaders' domestic positions. This will inhibit politically risky departures from established policy. This means that Iran's foreign policy next year will still exhibit considerable hostility to US interests. This is most clearly demonstrated by Tehran's continued rejection of the Middle East peace process...]
These factors, Tenet said, will conspire "to keep the domestic political scene unsettled." However, the CIA chief also predicted that "change in Iran is inevitable."
["A key indicator that the battle over
change is heating up came last July when student protests erupted in 18
Iranian cities for several days. The coming year promises to be just as
contentious as Iran elects a new Majles in February," Mr. Tanent added.]
In Iran Taxis Don't Stop for Mullahs, The New York Times, January 30
When he arrived at the shop of a specialist in old Islamic scripts in Tehran, the mullah, about 40, was neatly bearded in the way of the college-educated Shiite clerics. But he was dressed in a business suit, not his cleric's attire, and he was flustered.
Late for his appointment, he explained that he had waited in the street in his white turban, black cloak and collarless white shirt, and had seen a dozen empty taxis pass. So he returned home and changed to a suit, and the next taxi picked him up. But the driver, eyeing his fare's salt-and-pepper beard in the mirror, asked, "You're a mullah, aren't you?"
"Well yes, I must confess that I am," the mullah said.
"If I'd realized that when I first saw you," the driver said, "I wouldn't have stopped."
Hearing the unhappy man tell his story a couple of months ago, it seemed like an apt metaphor for the troubled times confronting Iran's 180,000 Muslim clerics. Having wrested power from Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in 1979 and created an intolerant, often vengeful theocratic state that has ruined Iran's economy, sponsored terrorist groups abroad and left the country profoundly isolated, the clerics are now widely unpopular among Iran's 65 million people…
This is not to say that Iranians have forgotten, much less forgiven, the brutality of the shah's secret police, his modernizer's insensitivity to Iran's 1,350-year embrace of Islam or the corruption he tolerated.
Rather, it is a measure of how anguished
Iranians have become after nearly a generation under "the government of
God," and of their desperate yearning for change….
Pro-Khatami "Journalist" Brags about role in Suppression of Kurds, [State-Controlled daily] Akhbar-E Eqtesad, February 2
After being disqualified by the Guardian Council, Hamid Reza Jala'ipur [member of the banned so called "reformist" daily 'Neshat' editorial board], a candidate for the sixth Majlis elections from Tehran, has called on the Guardian Council to review its decision…
In another part of his letter… Jala'ipur says: "How come that I do not believe in or am not committed to Islam, the Islamic republic, the constitution and the Velayat-e Faqih, when three of my brothers went to the [Iran-Iraq] war front after me, and were martyred.
"I also served in war regions for 10
years as the governor of Neqdeh, governor of Mehabad and as the deputy
governor in charge of political affairs in Kurdistan… Therefore, if these
sacrifices were not regarded as commitment to and belief in the above-mentioned
four principles, then what are they?"
No Prospect for Economic Reforms, The Financial Times, February 2
Prominent members of Iran's… conservative coalition have started to speak openly about the prospect of losing their parliamentary majority in elections this month, but reject predictions of a landslide victory by… allies of… Khatami….
Even if the… coalition of 18 factions known as the May 23 Front does gain a majority, analysts say it is doubtful that the new government would implement sweeping economic reforms.